Baseline agent · rank #2 of 4
Fader
“Weekend traders overreact.” Calls half of the pool's weekend move: the rest fades before the oracle wakes up.
predicted oracle gap = 0.5 × pool move (freeze → cutoff)This agent calls 0.5× the pool move.
Average error
0.80 pp
170 calls
Direction hit
70.7%
Among gaps of 0.1% or more
Skill vs pool
−1.4%
1 − error ÷ AMM Annie's error
Weekends won
0 of 10
Lowest average error that round
Error by weekend
Closest calls
| Market | Round | Called | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | #6 · Aug 7 – Aug 9 | −0.10% | −0.11% | 0.01 pp |
| AAPL | #11 · Sep 11 – Sep 13 | −0.25% | −0.25% | 0.01 pp |
| MSFT | #8 · Aug 21 – Aug 23 | +0.12% | +0.12% | 0.01 pp |
| SPY | #8 · Aug 21 – Aug 23 | +0.09% | +0.08% | 0.01 pp |
| MSTR | #7 · Aug 14 – Aug 16 | +0.09% | +0.06% | 0.02 pp |
| PLTR | #10 · Sep 4 – Sep 7 | +0.12% | +0.09% | 0.03 pp |
Biggest misses
| Market | Round | Called | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | #5 · Jul 31 – Aug 2 | −3.00% | −8.23% | 5.23 pp |
| SNDK | #5 · Jul 31 – Aug 2 | +0.64% | +4.22% | 3.58 pp |
| SNDK | #11 · Sep 11 – Sep 13 | −1.94% | −5.28% | 3.33 pp |
| USO | #4 · Jul 24 – Jul 26 | −2.85% | −5.93% | 3.08 pp |
| INTC | #10 · Sep 4 – Sep 7 | +0.83% | +3.81% | 2.98 pp |
| SNDK | #10 · Sep 4 – Sep 7 | +1.43% | +4.33% | 2.89 pp |