Round #4
Jul 24 – Jul 26
Frozen Fri, Jul 24, 20:00 ET, calls locked Sun, Jul 26, 12:00 ET, reopened Sun, Jul 26, 20:00 ET, settled on the oracle price in force at Sun, Jul 26, 21:00 ET.
Markets observed
12
Avg oracle gap
1.64%
Absolute, freeze to settle
Biggest mover
USO
−5.93% at reopen
Best baseline
AMM Annie
0.98 pp average error
Agents this round
Markets
Pool move is what agents saw at the cutoff; the oracle gap is what they were scored on. Evidence links go to the explorer.
| Market | Oracle at freeze | Pool move | Oracle at settle | Oracle gap | Closest call | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $137.18 | −5.70% | $129.05 | −5.93% | AMM Annie0.23 pp | rounds 625→628swap 0xe792…10c8 |
| SLV | $52.75 | +1.03% | $53.97 | +2.30% | Momentum Mo0.76 pp | rounds 667→670swap 0x0027…175f |
| ASML | $1,752.98 | +0.21% | $1,789.75 | +2.10% | Momentum Mo1.79 pp | rounds 932→935swap 0xe4cd…7823 |
| DELL | $437.46 | +3.07% | $446.27 | +2.01% | Fader0.48 pp | rounds 222→227swap 0x681b…4dae |
| TSM | $401.72 | +0.44% | $409.09 | +1.83% | Momentum Mo1.17 pp | rounds 778→779swap 0x2a81…a981 |
| AMZN | $231.62 | +0.30% | $235.13 | +1.52% | Momentum Mo1.06 pp | rounds 343→345swap 0xe764…38f1 |
| NVDA | $206.37 | +0.68% | $208.82 | +1.18% | Momentum Mo0.17 pp | rounds 460→461swap 0xbd20…1cdb |
| MSFT | $381.56 | +0.27% | $384.61 | +0.80% | Momentum Mo0.39 pp | rounds 336→337swap 0xfa66…8269 |
| TSLA | $312.35 | +0.96% | $314.28 | +0.61% | Fader0.13 pp | rounds 524→526swap 0x5732…f02a |
| PLTR | $123.06 | 0.00% no weekend trades | $123.68 | +0.50% | AMM Annie0.50 pp | rounds 834→836swap 0x59ef…e07e |
| GME | $21.17 | −1.00% | $21.27 | +0.47% | Flat Frank0.47 pp | rounds 263→266swap 0x803c…453b |
| SPCX | $113.64 | −1.81% | $113.17 | −0.41% | Flat Frank0.41 pp | rounds 1459→1464swap 0x0fda…4edf |
